In Catch Me If You Can, Frank Abagnale does not win people over with evidence. He wins them over with signals. A pilot’s uniform. A doctor’s coat. A confident voice. The right vocabulary. The appearance of belonging. He understands that most people do not investigate every claim. They look for familiar cues, make a quick judgment, then move on. When the signals feel right, credibility is assumed. That idea feels uncomfortably relevant today. Artificial intelligence has made the signals of...

Near the end of Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, Indiana Jones enters a chamber filled with cups. Gold cups. Silver cups. Ornate cups. Cups covered in jewels. Some look ancient. Others look valuable. Several appear important enough to be the Holy Grail. Only one is real. Walter Donovan chooses the cup that looks most impressive. It is exactly what he imagines the cup of a king should look like. He drinks. He has chosen poorly. Indiana Jones approaches the decision differently. He looks...

Picture an iceberg. What you see above the water is only a small part of what exists below the surface. That image is a useful way to think about market opportunity. The entire iceberg may represent the market that exists. Yet your business can only serve part of it. And an even smaller part is realistically available for you to capture. That is the difference between TAM, SAM, and SOM. Too many companies look at the entire iceberg and call it their opportunity. They see a large market. They...